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Non-consensus research notes on macro volatility, derivatives positioning, and cross-asset transmission. Read by the desk.

• 27 Jun 2026WTI Positioning Is Screaming Floor. The Tape Isn't Listening Yet.Latest CFTC data shows hedge funds slashed long exposure into the hole. Systematic CTAs are mechanically short. Welcome to the zone where bottoms get made.
• 4 Jun 2026AI tokens are becoming a geographic commodity. The market has not noticed.A four-tier framework for pricing the global AI inference trade, 2026-2030. Working paper out today on Zenodo and Academia.
• 31 May 2026Three Views on Oil. Two Are Wrong.WTI derivatives say $90. The Chevron CEO sees upward pressure into June and July. Asian upstream equities imply just $62.80 a barrel. The asymmetric trade si…
• 30 May 2026What JPM Just Confirmed About 2027 AI Data Centers — PJM Grid Constraint × Hyperscaler CDS Divergence60% of announced 2027 capacity is unbroken ground. Hyperscaler CDS volume is up 10× year-on-year. The bond market is six months ahead of equities.
• 28 May 2026Shanghai Just Made AI Tokens a Commodity. Here's Why It Breaks the US Capex Thesis.In 72 hours: SHFE filed token futures, DeepSeek made -75% permanent, Xiaomi cut MiMo -99%. Vector 1 of our China AI thesis just confirmed — and the US …
• 27 May 2026Yes, the US AI Bubble Is Real. Here is Why.Five quantifiable arguments. Two dated catalysts. The window opens Q4 2026.

Real-time positioning data points, skew snapshots, and short-form commentary. Lower friction than the newsletter, same desk.

• 27 Jun 2026Vol research keeps describing markets as if they're in one mode. In June 2026, that framework breaks. The options market is telling three stories at once. Three asymmetric distributions, sitting side by side. The vol…
• 27 Jun 2026Quiet but important shift in crude positioning this week. Latest CFTC report (data 23 Jun, released 26 Jun): WTI managed money cut net longs to 82,872 (-13,356 WoW). Discretionary HFs aggressively de-risking. Net…
• 16 Jun 2026Get Ready for SpaceX Options Trading. It Will Be Wild. Options on SpaceX stock are scheduled to begin trading when the stock market opens on Tuesday. By Steven M. Sears 06/16/2026 15:15:57 [BRR]
• 11 Jun 2026The AI infra financing loop, decomposed. 5 reports 9-10 June (Bloomberg/Barron's/MT Newswires) trace a closed loop: Oracle, Apollo, Blackstone, Broadcom, Google, Anthropic, OpenAI, ex-crypto datacenters. 5…
• 11 Jun 2026The Hormuz Stalemate: why neither side can publicly fold. 16 tankers off Oman, transponders dark. 2 mbd leaking out of the Gulf vs 17 normal. Oil down 30% from war peak. Market prices resolution. From the desk, it's a…
• 31 May 2026There are three views on oil right now, and they cannot all be right. Derivatives price WTI around $90 as a base case. One-month risk reversals collapsed from 23.3 in early April to 9.9 last week. Speculative net…